Travel will return, more exotically than ever

INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL is sure to recover, not least because its benefits have long been appreciated. “Travel and change of place impart new vigour to the mind,” is a quote attributed to Seneca, a first-century Roman philosopher of the Stoic school. That is as true of the relaxation of a package trip to the seaside or a trek in the Himalayas as it is of visiting a close friend abroad or of a business leader seeking new opportunities. The goal of stoicism was to encourage virtue and maximise happiness. Travel often brings both virtue and happiness. It could be a bigger part of the bargain when the wheelie-bag era resumes.

The urge to travel is unlikely to be permanently dimmed by covid-19 even if the means to do it suffers a long-lasting hit and some destinations take years to recover. All forecasts reckon on travel and tourism returning to prepandemic levels over the next few years and then continuing on a path of growth. Looking back, there will appear to have been a “blip in demand but no impact over 20 years,” says Michael Khan of Oliver Wyman, a consultancy. Underlying motives and the longer-term factors of growing wealth and increasing leisure time seem certain to reassert themselves. The rapid growth of Chinese tourism shows the importance that the newly wealthy place on taking a well-earned break. A growing global middle class will see the Chinese joined by Indians, Malaysians and Indonesians. This could bring significant shifts. Asia’s burgeoning middle class and the preference for regional travel could mean that South-East Asia overtakes the Mediterranean as the world’s preferred holiday destination.